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The Journey of the Planetary Ascension Team
y Georgi Stankov Posted on June 17, 2015
Georgi Stankov, June 16, 2015
This website is essentially a seamless chronicle of the glorious and adventurous journey of the light warriors of the Planetary Ascension Team (PAT), also known as the light warriors of the first and the last hour. This small group of highly evolved souls is entirely responsible for the Ascension of Gaia and part of humanity to the new Golden galaxy.
I must admit that when I opened this website this was not my intention. However it was a divine dispensation from the very beginning that it should precisely become the focal point of the PAT. Therefore we all should be very grateful to Erik Westhovens from Holland for making the huge effort to collect all contributions of the PAT on this website in comprehensive 8 volumes, each one of them consisting of roughly 1000 pages that encompass the last four most decisive years of the ascension process of Gaia. It is remarkable that this huge chronicle of the Ascension finishes with the number of Infinity “8” on the cusp of our ID move to 5D1 New Lemuria.
I would like to recommend each PAT member to visit Erik’s website and study one more time the chronicle of our common endeavour that is unique not only on this planet but also in the whole multiverse. Although we all know that human language is a very poor medium to relay the complexity and grandeur of our energetic achievements as a collective, it is nonetheless worthwhile to study this incredible documentation one more time as to realize the complexity of all existence and how different human lives and destinies merge in a perfect harmony with each other to create the Symphony of Ascension and prove the indomitable spirit of the light warriors of the first the last hour:
Below, you can also find a copy of the The Journey of the Planetary Ascension Team in 8 volumes as compiled by Erik Westhovens in the original form:
The Journey of the Planetary Ascension Team books
Every post of Georgi Stankov with the PAT (Planetary Ascension Team) that are shared on stankovuniversallaw.com are documented into a book serie. Every ebook can be downloaded for free.
The latest part of the book serie will be regularly updated with the latest posts.
January 15, 2011
February 16, 2012
. download PDF
979 pages – 9.9 MB
February 18, 2012
July 30, 2012
. download PDF
992 pages – 23.2 MB
July 30, 2012
December 23, 2012
. download PDF
950 pages – 16.1 MB
December 24, 2012
May 24, 2013
. download PDF
1162 pages – 12.7 MB
May 25, 2013
October 25, 2013
. download PDF
1253 pages – 26.6 MB
October 26, 2013
May 30, 2014
. download PDF
224 pages – 2.6 MB
June 13, 2014
Januari 8, 2015
. download PDF
989 pages – 104.7 MB
Januari 9, 2015
June 7, 2015
. download PDF 918 pages – 52.7 MB
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The Questions of Philosophy and the Answer of the New Gnosis (continuation)
y Georgi Stankov Posted on June 14, 2015
From the book “Gnostic Tradition of Western Philosophy“
– Part 3 –
Translation in English by Georgi Stankov
Part 1 – The Crisis of Philosophy Before the Discovery of the Universal Law
Part 2 – The Questions of Philosophy and the Answer of the New Gnosis
The 7F-Creationary Realms
The frequency spectra of the 7F-creationary realms, of Spirit, lie beyond the electromagnetic spectrum which is determined by h. Each 7F-realm has its own frequency spectrum which is much higher than the electromagnetic spectrum, as well as a specific elementary action potential that significantly differs from the Planck’s constant in terms of the amount of energy. These action potentials cannot be measured directly with physical devices; only after their conversion into electromagnetic energy and matter can they be technically recorded.
Currently, physics has adopted, in accordance with the conventional view in the standard model, the messy concept of “energy-rich vacuum”, also known as Higgs field, from which the elementary particles arise according to certain symmetry rules “spontaneously” so to say, out of nowhere, in order to introduce the creationary activity of the 7F-realms – the creation of matter and 3d space-time – more or less plausible in the current physical world view. According to this model the physical world consists of two classes of particles – leptons and quarks, which stand in constant energetic interaction with the help of the field quanta, the photon and the W- and Z-bosons (Higgs bosons), and the gluons that occur in eight forms.
The existence of higher-dimensional energy realms, beyond the Planck’s constant, which could be the cause for the creation of the observed matter, is not even taken into consideration, although the standard model must admit a violation of the aforementioned rules of symmetry in the creation of particles, which are in reality mathematical and geometrical rules of anthropocentric origin. Such particles as the Higgs-boson, which is blamed for the breaking of symmetry, cannot be measured because they have incredibly high energies according to the standard model; such energies cannot be created currently in particle accelerators (The book was written before the “super collider” was built in Cern; see here about the latest developments.).
For this reason, one can imagine the shock of the physicists once they learn that the organic body of a human being is able to cope with this phase transition in toto, so that a human being can dwell as transliminal, multidimensional personality both in the h-space-time as well as in the 7F-creationary realms.
It is cogent why the imminent parousia (Greek for the Second Coming of Christ), which is frequently mentioned in this book and in the Gnosis will shake contemporary physics to its very foundations before the physicists begin to study the new Theory of the Universal Law, although it has already hollowed out the world view of traditional physics and does not need any further miraculous evidence.
Currently, the materialistic “established” science denies the existence of the 7F-creationary realms and puts up only reluctantly with the evidence of “dubious” paranormal phenomena which are not considered by the “real” scientists worthy of being examined more closely. This arrogant attitude is, as I have already explained in detail in the Gnosis, an aspect of fearful projections and prejudices (arrogance is a common expression of fear) and not founded in rational principles of research, as is often argued pompously.
We realize once again how the empirical-materialistic dogma becomes an obstacle to human understanding, whereby the actual mechanism is the fear of scientists to violate this dogma and become an object of ridicule. This negative, fear-related feedback narrows the view of the researchers, and they overlook willingly that all phenomena of 3D space-time are ongoing creations of the higher realms: First comes the idea and then the physical form.
The action potentials and the frequencies of the 7F-creationary realms are superimposed with the electromagnetic spectrum of photon space-time and matter that arise secondarily from them and create a harmonious continuum (U-sets). Using precisely controlled local constructive and destructive interferences and resonances, complex and diverse forms of matter such as particles, inorganic elements, substances, organic cells and species are being formed, maintained and destroyed, whereby these material forms are primarily created and kept alive by standing quantum waves and superimposed electromagnetic fields. The blueprints for these 3D space-time forms are designed in the 7F-realms where they are also stored. They exist simultaneously in the everlasting “Now”.
Thus, the doctrine of evolution according to which external environmental factors are the driving force behind the evolutionary development of organic matter from unicellular organisms to humans is exposed as a naive anthropocentric belief that is as unscientific as the Genesis in the Bible. All species exist simultaneously – only their materialization may temporarily disappear from the earth.
In this context, mind, psyche, astral body and chakras are local systems of the 7F-creationary realms, which we refer to also as the “astral realms” or “astral worlds” based on the esoteric tradition. These systems include the higher-frequency software program for the formation of the human body, the organism, and for its regulation and control through the psyche and the mind, whereby the seven body chakras are energetic interfaces between the organic matter of the body and the 7F-creationary realms.
The body itself is an electromagnetic cell system, and the individual cell structures, such as proteins, DNA and RNA are built and kinematically regulated through supramolecular solitons (standing quantum waves). All biochemical structures, cells, cell aggregates, organs, and ultimately the entire organism are created under the guidance of an astral software program whose blueprint is being developed by the 7F-creationary realms.
The astral body, also called light body, is an exact representation of the supramolecular solitons in the organic structures of the biological body, from which the organic matter is created secondarily by reducing the frequencies of the astral energies. The astral body extends a little bit beyond the skin boundary and is part of the astral program for controlling and maintaining the human metabolism; its simultaneous complexity is unimaginably high and cannot be comprehended by the human, sequentially thinking consciousness.
I have worked out this theme in detail in Volume 3 and in the book on Gnosis. In this way I have given for the first time a unique scientific and physical response to the central philosophical question: “What am I?”. The response is within the new axiomatics of the primary term and is logical, i.e, rational and consistent at the same time. Man is an embodied soul and the soul is an individuation of the 7F-creationary realms
The 7F-creationary realms are organized energy, which can be described as a world intelligence or cosmic consciousness according to the primary axiom. In gnosis and in religion it is called “Spirit” that creates matter and all living creatures. The human organism is thus a three-dimensional, organic (electromagnetic) subset of the soul: it is formed and controlled by her.
Human consciousness, also defined as daily consciousness, mind or spirit, is also an insignificant U-subset of the universal spirit, by which the soul controls the body in its various activities. The mind is thus a local, limited function of the 7F-creationary realms, which operates as a kind of a specialized software package and connects to the hardware program of the brain, respectively to the central nervous system. This connection creates a one-sided orientation of the mind to the exclusive processing of data of the material 3D world. The perception of astral information is thereby almost completely faded out.
We speak in this context of an amnesia of the incarnated personality: She has temporarily forgotten that she is an immortal soul. This limited 3D data forms the so-called “real, objective world” of the incarnated personality. These data are limited on the one hand by the narrow sensory perception and on the other by the mind, and here they are especially distorted by the fear before they are stored in an astral memory organ. Fear represents an energetic pattern of destructive (low-frequency) interference at the level of the psyche, which reduces the higher frequencies of the mind. In this way, distorted, low-frequency images of reality are created in human consciousness.
I speak in this context of a “fear-driven reality” in which human existence solely takes place: human beings know no other reality. Human memory cannot be found in the brain because it is part of the incarnated soul – of the 7F-creationary realms. This distorted, restricted memory forms the database, that is available to the mind, which is also part of the soul, in order to perceive the external world and respond to it. The highly subjective perception of the external world and of the own identity must then be rectified and corrected as much as possible by the human mind.
To perceive oneself and the world is a principal object of the interpersonal relationships during the incarnation process, which operate on the principle of cause and effect and are summarized in esotericism under the term “Karma“. On the other hand, this principle is no longer applicable in the simultaneity of the 7F-realms. Since the higher realms function in this regard as energy probability alternatives, the causes and effects exist there as simultaneous energetic phenomena which can be manipulated forwards and backwards without “getting in the way.” Hence the simultaneity of the higher realms.
The human mind (as daily consciousness) can not imagine this energetic state currently. This lies solely in the fact that it stays in an energetic connection to the brain and the senses which are composed of neuronal electromagnetic synapses. These neuronal connections transmit the somatic and external stimuli with a certain time-lag. For this reason all the information received by the brain as sensations of the body and the external world are delayed in linear time – they are already past before they are processed by the mind. Their mental perception is also distorted in a secondary manner by the human angst.
The fact that only sensory perceptions from the past are available to the human mind as memory, leads to the formation of the idea of a chain of events that can, depending on the perspective, be divided into causes and effects. These form a causal chain (causal nexus) that comes from the past (proton kinun), flows through the present and vanishes into the future, as it was already described by Democritus.
The concept of causality allows the subjective perception of a time structure which consists, in line with established conception, of past, present and future. In this sense the famous time axis is a manifestation of the cause-effect principle. It is, strictly speaking, a convention of human experience, which is already practised very early in the family and society. From a higher vantage point of view, the linear axis of time, to which a central theoretical importance is attributed in philosophy and science, is merely an agreement of the incarnated souls according to which modality they should experience the energetic 3D phenomena on the earth. The time axis is, so to say, a collective mass hallucination and has nothing to do with the actual realities of the parent 7F-creationary realms.
The apparent existence of a linear time axis is crucially propagated by human language, which is a sequential medium for the recording of events. The verbal presentation of events is based necessarily, i.e., grammatically and semantically on the formation of causal chains and fades out at the same time parallel events. Both the recipient and the narrator have the impression that the events proceed along a linear time axis like forming a chain. In reality this narrative axis is only one possible alternative probability of certain selected events that take shape in the 3D space-time and draw the attention of the beholder. Thus the formation of verbal causal chains presupposes that many other events are consciously or unconsciously faded out. In this extremely selective process of human perception, human angst plays a crucial role as a filter and distortion of reality.
There is actually an infinite number of other probability alternatives, both in the astral realms and on the earth that exist simultaneously and are equally valid. Some of them can be realized only in the higher realms and can appear to man as fantasies, others are materialized on the earth and are neither registered nor verbally recorded, so that they seem to have no validity in the collective memory of mankind. On this gnostic problem of language I will go into more detail in Part 3 of the book.
In this context, it is important to emphasize again that the 7F-creationary realms create the h-space-time as an U-subset and include (encompass) it, i.e., they are constantly around us and enter in interactions with matter. Hence they are not separated spatially, but only by a time, respectively a frequency difference from the electromagnetic spectrum of matter. This frequency difference cannot be overcome by the sequentially thinking, coupled to the brain daily consciousness of most people at this time.
In this process of human cognition, fear is a consciously inserted distortion of reality by the soul and at the same time an indicator of the maturity of soul. Towards the end of the incarnation cycle which consists of about 70-80 lives on average, the anxiety and amnesia decreases, so that the incarnated personality can develop psychic abilities. Her gnostic knowledge expands by accepting the astral information that is made available to her by her soul. If we now speak of human Gnosis, we must always take into account that each incarnated personality has an individual medial ability to obtain transcendental knowledge and internalize it.
This ability depends crucially on the soul age. Only old souls are really capable of receiving and processing transcendental knowledge, and making it accessible to other people in a verbal or written form. As this knowledge and experiences are beyond the limited physical senses, their verbal representation is always a limitation of what is actually experienced: one is dependent on parables and metaphors to convey transcendental, mystical experiences beyond the visible material world. Such parables are unfortunately interpreted by many people who are not open to such experiences, literally and elevated to dogma. In religion this happens very often.
When Jesus spoke of the “Heavenly Father”, he simply used a metaphor for the 7F-creationary realms that was very common in the patriarchal world of his time and was well understood by his disciples. However, to postulate from that a humanisation of the concept of God, as the Catholic Church does recently in order to prohibit the dissemination of written mystical experiences of Christian priests and monks, is a very primitive, angst-driven interpretation of religious Gnosis. It can neither be reconciled with the broad mystical tradition of the Church, nor justified by the long gnostic discussion on the nature of God in the epoch of the synods when most dogmas were established.
Despite many laborious attempts since the Hellenistic period up to modern times, the Church has failed to develop an axiomatic Gnosis of God’s terms. For this reason, it continuously fell falteringly in such semantic traps which it tries to circumvent by dogmas and thought control. Actually such bans arise solely from the envy and fear of young souls, such as Cardinal Ratzinger, who have key offices in the Church, but does not have the psychic abilities to make transcendental experiences. As official guardians they satisfy their craving for recognition and their spiritual fear of having missed something important, by prohibiting such mystical experiences that enable the participants novel gnostic insights and declare them to be non-existent.
This dogmatic approach of the Church illustrates how all earthly institutions are founded on the principle of the angst of young souls: they are materialized interpretations of this prevailing psychological principle. At the same time this principle represents the state of separation in which humanity currently exclusively lives.
In reality, the idea of God, which is always a unique, intimate idea of the existence of the higher realms of the soul, is a function of the individual ability for abstraction. Simple characters, that is, mainly child- and young souls are more prone to anthropomorphic conceptions of God because they are dominated by their overly materialistically tainted minds. Old and mature souls will experience the existence of the 7F-creationary realms rather as a pantheistic, energetic feeling of ecstasy because their densest fear-based layers are more or less dissolved and their chakras – open to the higher frequency energies. Young souls must, in their unreflected angst, necessarily reject this medial superiority of the old souls.
Thereby it is immaterial whether this rejection takes place under the cloak of religion or science. In their gnostic rigidity religion and science are very similar: In their current form they are typical products of the young soul mentality that will experience a fundamental transformation with the forthcoming Evolutionary Leap of Mankind.
Since the majority of the world population consists currently mainly of baby, child and young souls who do not have any access to gnostic knowledge, it is cogent why philosophy plays such an insignificant role in present-day society (9). Seen from this point of view, the human being is, at the present stage of evolution of consciousness, a standardized by the 7F-creationary realms, angst-driven system of limited self-knowledge and perception of a narrow spectrum of energetic events that make up the visible edifice of human reality. This extremely subjective reality is embedded in the larger realities of the higher realms, with which it constantly interacts and from which it receives its power of creation.
The great creative dimensions of the 7F-realms remain hidden, even though they constantly exert their effects during an incarnation. One can imagine the human mind as a small, insignificant piece of a program that is separated by a lockdown program from the all-embracing consciousness of the soul and the 7F-creationary realms (main server). The access to the higher realms is primarily blocked by fear patterns of the psyche. The psyche (emotional body) is a low-frequency U-subset of the soul and the 7F-creationary realms that is modulated and regulated by the higher-frequency mind (mental body).
However, the lockdown program of the incarnated personality should not be viewed as a design flaw, but as a particularly demanding energetic challenge of the soul, which she has invented for her incarnation on the earth. What appears to be non-spiritual and mentally deficient in human behavior for a philosophically predisposed soul, represents at the same time a particularly steep and challenging way to finish quickly with the necessary incarnation cycle. The soul herself travels through the dimensions of All-That-Is and evolves continuously. The incarnation experience is in this way an insignificant stage in her development.
9. See my comments on the subject in the Gnosis.
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A New Probability Alternative for the Upcoming Financial Crash
by Georgi Stankov Posted on June 13, 2015
Georgi Stankov, June 12, 2015
Everything is happening now with the speed of light and even quicker – simultaneously. As the renowned political expert Gilbert Doctorow revealed in his latest interview with RT, it needs only one stumbling block for the EU hostile policy towards Russia and its total subservience to the Empire of Evil to crumble:
Video: EU Support for US Russia Policy Far Less Than People Realize
But what he fails to understand is that this stumbling stone could be so huge that the whole edifice of the EU with feet of clay can very easily collapse when a single major European bank declares bankruptcy. And as it seems now the Deutsche Bank is in a pre-infarct state of imminent bankruptcy.
In order to better understand the scope of the impending “greatest possible disaster” (known as GAU in German), let me give you a few numbers. The 12th biggest bank worldwide, the Deutsche Bank harbours 75 trillion $ derivatives, which Warren Buffet defined correctly as financial WMD. This is 20 times the GDP of Germany, the fourth biggest economy in the world after the USA, China, Japan and ahead of Russia on the 5th place, and by far and large the most sound national economy in the West. If the Deutsche Bank declares bankruptcy, and there are many serious and significant signs that point to this imminent outcome, then not only will the motor of EU go under, but the whole EU with its already failed currency.
At the end of this month we shall know when Greece will default as there is no other possible outcome. When this happens, the Deutsche Bank will lose between 50 and 100 billion € Greek bonds. There is no way how this bank will survive this loss of liquidity, given the fact that only a year ago it was compelled to sell a large chunk of its own capital on the equity market with a 30% reduction as to generate the much needed cash.
The dismissal of its CEO this week, effective end of June, only a few weeks after he was endowed with bigger executive powers, is more than ominous. Even more ominous is the history of the new CEO, a former CEO (names are irrelevant in this discussion as we are talking exclusively about cabal banksters) of the Swiss bank UBS (Union Bank of Switzerland). This bank is notorious for massive losses in 2008, in the follow-up of the US subprime mortgage crisis, which exceeded US$37 billion, the largest such losses of any of its peers so far. The bank could only be saved by massive financial support from the Swiss government and some dubious Singapore investment corporations, which possess a large portion of the bank now. Hence the new guy in charge of the Deutsche Bank, a British cabal bankster, has a lot of experience in state bail-out and bail-in of big banks.
Below, I will publish two excellent publications that elucidate the recent history of Deutsche Bank that led this bank on the brink of imminent bankruptcy. It is a mixture of high criminal energy, arrogance and utter incompetence. And most probably a result of controlled demolition of this bank by the AAA- (anglo-american assholes axis) bankster cabal in order to punish Germany for its effort to escape the dictatorship of the Empire of Evil and join forces with Russia. This we shall know very soon. We live in the time of immediate creation.
Deutsche Bank CEOs “Shown Door” – World’s Largest Holder of Derivatives In Trouble?
by Mark O’Byrne, June 8, 2015, GoldCore
– Deutsche co-CEOs announce “resignation” nine months before their contracts expire
– Only two weeks ago, CEO Anshu Jain was given more power to reorganise the bank
– Deutsche have been engaged in money laundering, tax evasion, derivative and manipulation scandals
– Deutsche is world’s largest holder of financial weapons of mass destruction (FWMD)
– Deutsche Bank’s derivatives position almost 15 times (20 times is the correct number, note George) as large as Germany’s GDP
– Announcement follows Greek failure to pay IMF on Friday and growing financial risk
The joint CEO’s of Germany’s largest bank, Deutsche Bank, the twelfth largest bank globally in terms of assets, unexpectedly announced their resignation over the weekend. Anshu Jain will resign at the end of this month, almost two years ahead of schedule while Juergan Fitschen will stay on until May of next year.
It is believed they resigned but some media reported that the CEOs heads had “rolled”, they were “shown the door” and Reuters reporting that Deutsche had “purged its leadership.”
The announcement followed what Deutsche Bank described as “an extraordinary meeting” over the weekend. It is particularly surprising given that Jain had been granted extra powers at the bank only two weeks ago to reorganise the scandal plagued lender.
In the past year Deutsche, like many international banks, have been found to have been engaged in a slew of corrupt practices from manipulation of interest rates, for which the firm was fined $2.5 billion in April, to tax evasion and money laundering to “mis-selling” of derivatives.
Deutsche Bank’s derivatives position is truly enormous. It was recently estimated to be around $54 trillion ($75 trillion is the correct sum, note, George). Germany’s GDP, the fourth largest in the world, was a mere $3.64 trillion in 2015. Were Deutsche Bank caught off-side in its derivatives positions there is not a government or institution on earth that could bail it out and it could lead to contagion in the German financial system and indeed in the global financial system.
The contagion from such an event would be devastating. It is for this reason that Warren Buffet described derivatives as WMD or “financial weapons of mass destruction.”
It is unnerving that the shock resignation should follow an “extraordinary meeting” over the weekend following the failure of Greece to meet its scheduled payment to the IMF on Friday.
This does not count as a Greek default but it increases the risk of a default on the amalgamated 1.5 billion euros that now must be paid by the end of June. A default and the triggering of credit default losses would cause massive volatility in financial markets and potentially destabilise an already shaky global bond market and global financial system.
There have been a number of shocks to the market this year which would have been expected to have led to sharp losses in the derivatives market but slipped quietly by.
The debris caused by the massive volatility in the Swiss Franc following its being unpegged from the Euro – where it spiked 30% in minutes in January – seems to have been swept under the carpet. Austria’s bad bank Heta failed in late February with apparently no casualties.
We do not know what provoked the dramatic reversal in attitude to Anshu Jain at Deutsche Bank but it looks very much like the bank may be getting its house in order in anticipation of another major scandal or crisis. When said crisis breaks the responsibility can be dumped on the previous leadership.
Since Warren Buffett’s initial warning in 2002 , 13 years ago, he has been remarkably quiet on the real and growing threat to global markets and the global financial system. Despite the fact that the scale of the risk today is of an order of magnitude greater now than it was then.
This is unfortunate given the global financial system itself is far more volatile and casino like today than it was in 2002. Sucking on the teet of Wall Street can lead to self induced omerta.
The global derivatives market is highly complex, totally unregulated and frighteningly large. One of the world’s leading derivatives experts, Paul Wilmott, who holds a doctorate in applied mathematics from Oxford University, has warned that the so-called notional value of the worldwide derivatives market is over $1.4 quadrillion.
A quadrillion is an incomprehensibly massive figure: it is 1,000 times a trillion or 1 with 12 zeros. A trillion is 1,000,000,000,000 and a quadrillion has 15 zeros – 1,000,000,000,000,000. The annual gross domestic product of the entire planet is between $50 trillion and $60 trillion. Thus, the derivatives markets notional value is more than 23 times the size of the value of all of the goods and services traded in global economy in one full year (I have estimated in past articles on economics the total debt to be about 50 times the world GDP, which is a fairly good estimate given this figure. Note, George)
The crisis in Greece, the rumblings in the global bond market and indeed in Europe’s fourth largest bank and the threat posed by financial weapons of mass destruction should give cause for concern.
Is Deutsche Bank the next Lehman?
by NotQuant, June 11, 2015
Looking back at the Lehman Brothers collapse of 2008, it’s amazing how quickly it all happened. In hindsight there were a few early-warning signs, but the true scale of the disaster publicly unfolded only in the final moments before it became apparent that Lehman was doomed.
First, for purposes of drawing a parallel, let’s re-cap the events of 2007-2008:
There were few early indicators of Lehman’s plight. Insiders however, were well aware: In late 2007, Goldman Sachs placed a massive proprietary bet against Lehman which would be known internally as the “Big Short”. (It’s a bet they would later profit from during the crisis).
In the summer 2007 subprime loans were beginning to perform poorly in the marketplace. By August of 2007, the commercial paper market saw liquidity evaporating quickly and funding for all types of asset-backed securities was drying up.
But still — even in late 2007, there was little public indication that Lehman was circling the drain.
Probably the first public indication that things were heading downhill for Lehman wasn’t until June 9th, 2008, when Fitch Ratings cut Lehman’s rating to AA-minus, outlook negative. (ironically, 7 years to the day before S&P would cut DB)
The “negative outlook” indicates that another further downgrade is likely. In this particular case, it was the understatement of all time.
A mere 3 months later, in the course of just one week, Lehman would announce a major loss and file for bankruptcy.
And the rest is history.
Could this happen to Deutsche Bank?
First, we must state the obvious: If Deutsche Bank is the next Lehman, we will not know until events are moving at an uncontrollable and accelerating speed. The nature of all fractional-reserve banks — who are by definition bankrupt at all times – is to project an aura of stability until that illusion has already begun to implode.
By the time we are aware of a crisis – if one is in the offing — it will already be a roaring blaze by the time it is known publicly. It is by now well-established that truth is the first casualty of all banking crises. There will be little in the way of early warnings. To that end, we begin connecting the dots:
Here’s a re-cap of what’s happened at Deutsche Bank over the past 15 months:
In April of 2014, Deutsche Bank was forced to raise an additional 1.5 Billion of Tier 1 capital to support it’s capital structure. Why?
1 month later in May of 2014, the scramble for liquidity continued as DB announced the selling of 8 billion euros worth of stock – at up to a 30% discount. Why again? It was a move which raised eyebrows across the financial media. The calm outward image of Deutsche Bank did not seem to reflect their rushed efforts to raise liquidity. Something was decidedly rotten behind the curtain.
Fast forwarding to March of this year: Deutsche Bank fails the banking industry’s “stress tests” and is given a stern warning to shore up it’s capital structure.
In April, Deutsche Bank confirms it’s agreement to a joint settlement with the US and UK regarding the manipulation of LIBOR. The bank is saddled with a massive $2.1 billion payment to the DOJ. (Still, a small fraction of their winnings from the crime).
In May, one of Deutsche Bank’s CEOs, Anshu Jain is given an enormous amount of new authorityby the board of directors. We guess that this is a “crisis move”. In times of crisis the power of the executive is often increased.
June 5: Greece misses it’s payment to the IMF. The risk of default across all of it’s debt is now considered acute. This has massive implications for Deutsche Bank.
June 6/7: (A Saturday/Sunday, and immediately following Greece’s missed payment to the IMF) Deutsche Bank’s two CEO’s announce their surprise departure from the company. (Just one month after Jain is given his new expanded powers). Anshu Jain will step down first at the end of June. Jürgen Fitschen will step down next May.
June 9: S&P lowers the rating of Deutsche Bank to BBB+ Just three notches above “junk”. (Incidentally, BBB+ is even lower than Lehman’s downgrade – which preceded it’s collapse by just 3 months)
And that’s where we are now. How bad is it? We don’t know because we won’t be permitted to know. But these are not the moves of a healthy company.
How exposed is Deutsche Bank?
The trouble for Deutsche Bank is that it’s conventional retail banking operations are not a significant profit center. To maintain margins, Deutsche Bank has been forced into riskier asset classes than it’s peers.
Deutsche Bank is sitting on more than $75 Trillion in derivatives bets — an amount that is twenty times greater than German GDP. Their derivatives exposure dwarfs even JP Morgan’s exposure – by a staggering $5 trillion.
With that kind of exposure, relatively small moves can precipitate catastrophic losses. Again, we must note that Greece just missed it’s payment to the IMF – and further defaults are most certainly not beyond the realm of possibility.
And if the dominos were not adequately stacked already, there is one final domino which perfects the setup.
Meet Tom Humphrey. He heads up Deutsche Bank’s Investment Banking operations on Wall Street.
He was also head of fixed income at Lehman.
History never repeats. But it does rhyme. In market terms, it tends to rhyme just about every 7 years.
Read also: The Question Is Not Is Deutsche Bank the Next Lehman, It’s “Is Lehman the Face of Banking in the Future
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